Does intensity of protests induce terrorism?

Authors

  • deniz Guvercin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.19.1.40

Keywords:

Terrorism, Protests, Military expenditure, Panel Data

Abstract

This article examines the impact of protests and demonstrations on the terrorist attacks within a country. While some studies in the relevant literature have explored the relationship between these variables, this research is unique in its empirical approach using panel data, with a specific focus on the intensity of protests and their effect on terror attacks. This article’s proposed mechanism underscores the significance of political stability as a deterrent against terrorism—a stability that can be undermined by ongoing protests. Using a sample of 26 countries for the period 2002–2018, the empirical findings strongly support the hypothesis that persistent protests are connected to an increased likelihood of terror attacks—a relationship robust even when control variables are considered. The estimation results also reveal that an augmented military strength has a negative impact on the occurrence of terror incidents. Furthermore, the durability of a political regime is linked to a decrease in the number of terror incidents. Additionally, the results indicate that the level of democracy contributes to the occurrence of terror incidents.

Author Biography

deniz Guvercin

Deniz Guvercin is a Lecturer in Economics in University of Lincoln. He has delivered several economics classes in different universities in different countries. He has PhD in Economics from Istanbul Bilgi University. He also holds MSc degrees in Economics from the Istanbul Technical University and the Iowa State University. He has several published articles, books and book chapters.

References

Acemoglu, D., Hassan, T.A. and Tahoun, A., 2018. The power of the street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring. The Review of Financial Studies, 31(1), pp.1–42. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx086

Allo, A. 2017. Protests, terrorism, and development: On Ethiopia's perpetual state of emergency. Yale Hum. Rts. & Dev. LJ, 19, p.133.

Bakker, R., Hill Jr, D.W. and Moore, W.H., 2016. How much terror? Dissidents, governments, institutions, and the cross–national study of terror attacks. Journal of Peace Research, 53(5), pp.711–726. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316655020

Bapat, N. A., and Zeigler, S. 2016. Terrorism, dynamic commitment problems, and military conflict. American Journal of Political Science, 60(2), pp. 337–351. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12211

Battaglini, M. 2017. Public protests and policy making. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(1), pp.485–549. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw039

Castro, F. and Retamal, R., 2022. Does electoral behavior change after a protest cycle? Evidence from Chile and Bolivia. OSF Preprints. May, 13. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/h28kg

Celestino, M. R., and Gleditsch, K. S. 2013. Fresh carnations or all thorn, no rose? Nonviolent campaigns and transitions in autocracies. Journal of Peace Research, 50(3), pp.385–400. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312469979

Chen, S., N. V. Loayza, and M. Reynal-Querol. 2008. The aftermath of civil war. World Bank Economic Review 22 (1): pp. 63–85. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhn001

Chenoweth, E. 2013. Terrorism and democracy. Annual Review of Political Science, 16, pp. 355–378. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-221825

Chenoweth, E., Hamilton, B. H., Lee, H., Papageorge, N. W., Roll, S. P., and Zahn, M. V. 2022. Who protests, what do they protest, and why? (No. w29987). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w29987

Chenoweth, E., 2023. Can nonviolent resistance survive COVID-19?. In Rights at Stake and the COVID-19 Pandemic (pp. 134–146). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003270195-20

Clark, D. and Regan, P., 2021. Mass Mobilization Protest Data. Harvard Dataverse V5.

Collins, W. J., and Margo, R. A. 2007. The economic aftermath of the 1960s riots in American cities: Evidence from property values. The Journal of Economic History, 67(4), pp. 849–883. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050707000423

Dave, D., Friedson, A., Matsuzawa, K., Sabia, J. J., and Safford, S. (2020). Black lives matter protests, social distancing, and COVID–19 (Vol. 27408). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631599

Drakos, K., and Giannakopoulos, N. 2009. An econometric analysis of counterterrorism effectiveness: the impact on life and property losses. Public Choice, 139(1–2), pp. 135–151. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-008-9384-9

El-Mallakh, N. 2020, How do protests affect electoral choices? Evidence from Egypt. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 179, pp. 299–322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.09.005

Enders, W., and Hoover, G. A. 2012. The nonlinear relationship between terrorism and poverty. American Economic Review, 102(3), pp. 267–272. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.3.267

Fisher, D.R., Andrews, K.T., Caren, N., Chenoweth, E., Heaney, M.T., Leung, T., Perkins, L.N. and Pressman, J., 2019. The science of contemporary street protest: New efforts in the United States. Science advances, 5(10), p.eaaw5461. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaw5461

Frye, T., & Borisova, E. (2019). Elections, protest, and trust in government: A natural experiment from Russia. The Journal of Politics, 81(3), 820–832. https://doi.org/10.1086/702944

Gause, L. 2022. Revealing issue salience via costly protest: How legislative behavior following protest advantages low–resource groups. British Journal of Political Science, 52(1), pp. 259–279. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000423

Gillion, D. Q. 2020. The loud minority: Why protests matter in American democracy. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691201726

Gillion, D. Q., and Soule, S. A. 2018. The impact of protest on elections in the United States. Social Science Quarterly, 99(5), pp. 1649–1664. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12527

Hornsey, M. J., Majkut, L., Terry, D. J., and McKimmie, B. M. 2003. On being loud and proud: Non‐conformity and counter‐conformity to group norms. British journal of social psychology, 42(3), pp. 319–335. https://doi.org/10.1348/014466603322438189

Iacoella, F., Justino, P. and Martorano, B., 2021. Do pandemics lead to rebellion? Policy responses to COVID-19, inequality, and protests in the USA (No. 2021/57). WIDER Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/995-2

Issaev, L., Fain, E., and Korotayev, A. 2021. Impact of the Arab Spring on terrorist activity in the Sahel. Ideology and Politics Journal, 19(3), pp. 34–49.

Jarzabkowski, P., Unger, C. J., and Meissner, K. 2022. Terrorism and violent protests: where do these disruptive events meet?.

Johnston, H., & Almeida, P. (Eds.). 2006. Latin American social movements: Globalization, democratization, and transnational networks. Rowman & Littlefield.

Kelly, C., & Breinlinger, S. 1995. Identity and injustice: Exploring women's participation in collective action. Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology, 5(1), pp. 41–57. https://doi.org/10.1002/casp.2450050104

Korotayev, A., Shishkina, A., and Khokhlova, A. 2022. Global echo of the Arab Spring. In Handbook of revolutions in the 21st century: The new waves of revolutions, and the causes and effects of disruptive political change (pp. 813–849). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86468-2_31

Krieger, T., and Meierrieks, D. 2019. Income inequality, redistribution and domestic terrorism. World Development, 116, pp. 125–136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.008

Madestam, A., Shoag, D., Veuger, S., and Yanagizawa–Drott, D. 2013. Do political protests matter? evidence from the tea party movement. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(4), pp. 1633–1685. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt021

Marshall, M.G. and Gurr, T.R., 2020. Polity5: Political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800–2018. Center for Systemic Peace, 2.

Martin, B. 1994. Protest in a liberal democracy. Philosophy and Social Action, 20(1–2), pp. 13–24.

Matsueda, R.L., Robbins, B.G. and Pfaff, S.J., 2020. Under What Conditions Are Students Willing to Protest? Selective Incentives, Production Functions, and Grievances. SocArXiv. October, 29. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/z3myc

Okafor, G., & Piesse, J. 2018. Empirical investigation into the determinants of terrorism: Evidence from fragile states. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(6), pp. 697–711.

Passarelli,F.,and Tabellini,G. 2017. Emotions and political unrest. Journal of Political Economy,125(3), pp. 903–946. https://doi.org/10.1086/691700

Piazza, J. A. 2011. Poverty, minority economic discrimination, and domestic terrorism. Journal of Peace Research, 48(3), pp. 339–353. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310397404

Plumber, T., and E. Neumayer. 2010. The Friend of My Enemy is My Enemy: International Alliances and International Terrorism. European Journal of Political Research, 49 (1), pp. 75–96 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01885.x

Putnam, R. 1997. Democracy in America at century’s end. Democracy’s victory and crisis, pp. 27–70. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511558832.003

Rosendorff, B. P., and Sandler, T. 2004. Too much of a good thing? The proactive response dilemma. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(5), pp.657–671. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002704268278

Ross, J. I. 1993. Structural causes of oppositional political terrorism: Towards a causal model. Journal of Peace Research, 30(3), pp.317–329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343393030003006

Ross, J. I. 1995. The relationship between domestic protest and oppositional political terrorism in connection with the Gulf conflict. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 11(1), pp. 35–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/104398629501100105

Sangnier, M., and Zylberberg, Y. 2017. Protests and trust in the state: Evidence from African countries. Journal of Public Economics, 152, pp. 55–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.05.005

Schofield, J. W., and Pavelchak, M. A. 1989. Fallout From The Day After. The Impact of a TV Film on Attitudes Related to Nuclear War 1. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 19(5), pp. 433–448. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1989.tb00066.x

Schumacher, M. J., and Schraeder, P. J. 2021. Does domestic political instability foster terrorism? Global evidence from the Arab Spring Era (2011–14). Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 44(3), pp. 198–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2018.1538124

Simon, B., Loewy, M., Stürmer, S., Weber, U., Freytag, P., Habig, C., Kampmeier, C. and Spahlinger, P., 1998. Collective identification and social movement participation. Journal of personality and social psychology, 74(3), p. 646. https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.74.3.646

Start (National Consortium for the Study of Terorism and Response to Terrorism), 2022. Global Terrorism Database, 1970–2020. Available at: https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd .

Stürmer, S., Simon, B., Loewy, M., and Jörger, H. 2003. The dual–pathway model of social movement participation: The case of the fat acceptance movement. Social Psychology Quarterly, pp. 71–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/3090142

Tahir, M. 2020. Terrorism and its determinants: panel data evidence from 94 countries. Applied Research in Quality of Life, 15(1), pp. 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11482-018-9660-x

Tarrow, S. G. 1989. Democracy and disorder: protest and politics in Italy, 1965–1975.

Tilly, C., and Tarrow, S. G. 2015. Contentious politics. Oxford University Press.

Tucker, J. A. 2007. Enough! Electoral fraud, collective action problems, and post–communist colored revolutions. Perspectives on politics, 5(3), pp. 535–551. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592707071538

Walsh, J. I., and Piazza, J. A. 2010. Why respecting physical integrity rights reduces terrorism. Comparative Political Studies, 43(5), pp. 551–577. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414009356176

World Bank, 2023a. World Bank Development Indicators 2023. The World Bank.

World Bank, 2023b. World Bank Governance Indicators 2023. The World Bank.

Young, J., and Dugan, L. 2008. Terrorism and Veto Players. In annual meeting of the International Studies Association.

Published

2024-04-19

How to Cite

Guvercin, deniz. (2024). Does intensity of protests induce terrorism?. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 19(1). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.19.1.40

Issue

Section

Articles

Similar Articles

<< < 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.