Poverty and conflict in Thailand’s Deep South
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.15.2.53Keywords:
Conflict, conflict resolution, poverty, ThailandAbstract
Thailand’s so-called Deep South has experienced much deadly violence since the early 2000s. This article investigates its determining factors in the context of the larger civil unrest/civil war literature—work on Southeast Asia being sparse and work on Thailand almost non-existent. The focus is on 37 sub-provincial districts of four of Thailand’s 77 provinces covering the years from 2012 to 2019. Centering on descriptive statistics with additional panel regressions, it is found that reduced poverty incidence, increased educational attainment for males, and increased district-level per capita income are all associated with reduced conflict intensity (a smaller number of conflict-related deaths). In contrast, ethno-religious backgrounds and certain geographic features are not associated with either increases or decreases in conflict-related deaths.References
Agbor, J. 2011. “Does School Education Reduce the Likelihood of Societal Conflict in Africa?” Working Paper, No. 218. Bellville, South Africa: University of Western Cape.
Berman, N. and M. Couttenier. 2014. “External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts.” Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper, No. 13/2012. Geneva, Switzerland: The Graduate Institute.
Bruckner, M. and A. Ciccone. 2010. “International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa.” The Economic Journal. Vol. 120, No. 544, pp. 519–534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x
Chongkittavorn, K. 2019. “Paradox Belies Thailand-Malaysia Ties.” Bangkok Post. 22 October 2019. https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/1777399/paradox-belies-thailand-malaysia-ties [accessed 24 September 2020]
Collier, P. and A. Hoeffler. 1998. “On Economic Causes of Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers. Vol. 50, pp. 563–573. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/50.4.563
Collier, P., A. Hoeffler, and M. Soderbom. 2001. “On the Duration of Civil War.” Policy Research Working Paper, No. WPS2681. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/652131468739153206/On-the-duration-of-civil-war
Couttenier, M. and R. Soubeyran. 2015. “A Survey of the Causes of Civil Conflicts: Natural Factors and Economic Conditions.” Revue D'économie Politique. Vol. 126, No. 6, pp. 787–810. https://doi.org/10.3917/redp.256.0787
[DSW] Deep South Watch. 2020. “Deep South Watch Database.” https://dswdatabase.info [accessed 23 September 2020].
Do, Q. and L. Iyer. 2010. “Geography, Poverty and Conflict in Nepal.” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 47, No. 6, pp. 735–748. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310386175
[DOPA] Department of Provincial Administration, Ministry of Interior. 2020. “Official Statistics Registration Systems.” https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/pk/pk_62.pdf [accessed 23 September 2020].
Dube, O. and J.F. Vargas. 2013. “Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia.” The Review of Economic Studies. Vol. 80, No. 4, pp. 1384–1421. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt009
Esteban, J. and D. Ray. 2008. “Polarization, Fractionalization and Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 163–182. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307087175
Fearon, J.D. and D. Laitin. 2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review. Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534
Hegre, H., H.M. Nygård, and R.F. Ræder. 2017. “Evaluating the Scope and Intensity of the Conflict Trap.” Journal of Peace Research. Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 243–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684917
Jitpiromsri, S. 2016. “Algorithm of 15-year Violence in Southern Border/Patani.” https://deepsouthwatch.org/th/node/11928 [accessed 2 February 2020].
Jitpiromsri, S., N. Waitoolkiat, and P. Chambers. 2018. “Special Issue: Quagmire of Violence in Thailand’s Southern Borderlands Chapter 1: Introduction.” Asian Affairs: An American Review. Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 43–55. https://doi.org/10.1080/00927678.2018.1555924
[NESDC] Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. 2020. “Gross Regional and Provincial Product: Chain Volume Measures 2018 Edition.” Bangkok, Thailand: NESDC. https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_w3c/ewt_dl_link.php?filename=gross_ regional&nid=5628 [accessed 1 August 2020].
[NESDC] Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. 2019. “Poverty and Income Distribution Statistics.” https://www.nesdc.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=3518 [accessed 5 February 2020].
Nicolai, S. and C. Triplehorn. 2003. “The Role of Education in Protecting Children in Conflict.” Network Paper, No. 42. London: Humanitarian Practice Network.
[NSO] National Statistical Office of Thailand, Ministry of Information and Communication Technology. 2020. “The 2018 Survey on Conditions of Society, Culture, and Mental Health.” Bangkok, Thailand: NSO. http://www.nso.go.th/sites/2014en/Survey/social/religion/SurveyOnConditions/2018/Full%20Report.pdf [accessed 23 September 2020].
Pickering, S. 2011. “Determinism in the Mountains: The Ongoing Belief in the Bellicosity of ‘Mountain People’.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 21–25. https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.6.2.21
Voice 2018. “Hundreds of Suspects Fled to Malaysia – 17 Linked to Violent Incidents.” Voice Online. 10 December 2018. http://www.voicetv.co.th/read/SyD-Cio14 [accessed 24 September 2020].
