Issues in the quantitative analysis of the SIPRI arms industry database

Authors

  • Ron Smith Birkbeck College, University of London
  • J. Paul Dunne University of Cape Town

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.13.2.11

Keywords:

Arms industry, data, SIPRI

Abstract

Although the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s data on the 100 largest arms (and military services) producing firms is very widely used for various purposes, there is relatively little quantitative statistical analysis of it. This article discusses some of the issues involved in the econometric analysis of the data. This is complicated by the difficulty of modeling the processes of mergers, acquisitions, and divestments which drives entry and exit from the list. Various models are estimated to examine (a) the relationship between arms sales and military expenditure, (b) the evolution of concentration and the size distribution of firms, (c) the cross-section relationship between size and growth of firms, (d) the times-series properties of the arms sales of individual firms, and (e) of arms sales by country of ownership.

References

Dunne, J.P., M. Garcia-Alonso, P. Levine, and R.P. Smith. 2007. “Determining the Defence industrial Base.” Defence and Peace Economics. Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 199–221. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690600924273

Dunne, J.P. and R.P. Smith. 2016. “The Evolution of Concentration in the Arms Market.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 12–17. https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.11.1.12

Hartley, K. 2017. The Economics of Arms. Newcastle upon Tyne, UK: Agenda Publishing. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv5cg7q6

Smith, R.P. 2013a. “The Defense Industry in an Age of Austerity.” The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 18–22. https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.8.1.18

Smith, R.P. 2013b. “The Economics of Defence in France and the UK.” in Jacques Aben, et al., eds. Liber Amicorum: Hommage en l'honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel. Paris: L’Harmattan. Revised version published as Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1304.

Smith, R.P. 2017. “Military Expenditure Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations.” Defence and Peace Economics. Vol. 28, No. 4, pp. 422–428. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245823

Smith, R.P. and A. Tasiran. 2010. “Random Coefficient Models of Arms Imports.” Economic Modeling. Vol. 27, pp. 1522–1528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.017

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Published

2018-09-25

How to Cite

Smith, R., & Dunne, J. P. (2018). Issues in the quantitative analysis of the SIPRI arms industry database. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.13.2.11

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