Rational atrocities and state formation: A game theoretic approach to the case of ISIS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.2.21Keywords:
Islamic State, ISIS, conflict, atrocities, evolutionary game theoryAbstract
Since Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced in April 2013 the formation of the new Islamic polity, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it has slowly become the epitome of terror. Certain acts of violence and atrocities committed by ISIS create the impression that it is acting out of blind, destructive religious fanaticism. In contrast, this article argues that this perception is but media-driven speculation. Instead of being religious zealots, ordering the purposeless killing of infidels, ISIS’ actions are governed by a strong rationale and a clear aim, namely the creation of a state, moreover one that extends beyond the traditional constitutive elements of statehood. In particular, ISIS’ rationality serves the purpose of consolidating an Islamic State in the Middle Eastern region, and beyond, under a Caliphate with a claim to universal governance and jurisdiction. This article illustrates the mechanisms which ISIS uses to achieve its aim of establishing an extended state, and it elaborates on the impact of actions and policies against ISIS on the basis of an evolutionary game theoretic model. [JEL codes: C73, D74, F51]References
Al-Tamimi, A.J. 2014. “The Dawn of the Islamic State of Iraq and Ash-sham.” Current Trends in Islamic Ideology. Vol. 16, pp. 5-15. http://www.hudson.org/research/10173-current-trends-in-islamist-ideology-volume-16 [accessed 23 August 2015].
Aumann, R.J. and A. Brandenburger. 1995. “Epistemic Conditions for Nash Equilibrium.” Econometrica. Vol. 65, No. 5, pp. 1161-1180. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2171725
Boyd, R. and P.J. Richerson. 2002. “Group Beneficial Norms can Spread Rapidly in a Structured Population.” Journal of Theoretical biology. Vol. 215, No. 3, pp. 287-296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.2001.2515
Caulderwood, K. 2014. “How ISIS Pillages, Traffics and Sells Ancient artifacts on Global Black Market.” International Business Times. http://www.ibtimes.com/howisis-pillages-traffics-sells-ancient-artifacts-global-black-market-1605044.
Coleman, A. 2014. “The Islamic State and International Law: An Ideological Rollercoaster?” Journal of the Philosophy of International Law. Vol. 5, No. 2, pp . 75-80.
Dorsey, J. 2014. “War Against Islamic State: Sowing Seeds of More Extremist Groups.” RSIS Commentaries 190. Singapore: Nanyang Technical University.
Posner, E.A. and A.O. Sykes. 2013. Economic Foundations of International Law. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.
Qutb, S. 1981. Milestones. Riyadh: International Islamic Publishers.
Schmid, A.P. 2015. “Challenging the Narrative of the Islamic State.” The Hague: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism.
Shane, S. and B. Hubbard. 2014. “ISIS Displaying a Deft Command of Varied Media. The New York Times (30 August 2014). http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/world/middleeast/isis-displaying-a-deft-command-of-varied-media.html?_r=0 [accessed 23 August 2015].
U.N. News Centre. 2015. Interview with Zainab Hawa Bangura, Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict (14 April 2015). http://www.un.org/apps/news/newsmakers.asp?NewsID=119 [accessed 23 August 2015].
Weibull, J.W. 1995. Evolutionary Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
Zelin, A.Y. 2014. “The War Between ISIS and al-Qaeda for Supremacy of the Global Jihadist Movement.” Washington, D.C.: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/ResearchNote_20_Zelin.pdf [accessed 23 August 2015].
