Toward mixed-methods impact evaluation: Making stabilization assessments work for development cooperation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.10.2.61Keywords:
Impact assessment, intervention research, peace and state buildingAbstract
We introduce a mixed-methods approach to assess the impact of a complex development program on stability and present a selection of relevant results on stabilization dynamics and possible program-related impacts. The program is implemented by an international nongovernmental organization and combines capacity building with infrastructure development at the district level in North Afghanistan. We develop a working definition of stability and define context-relevant stabilization indicators. We then analyze how various stabilization indicators relate to each other and observe how they change over time. Finally, we analyze how proxies for program activity relate to the stabilization dynamics observed. At this stage, the data analysis is exploratory, and the results are illustrative rather than definite in regard to the success or failure of the stabilization program. [JEL codes: D74, O53]
References
AREU. 2011. “District Councils. The Missing Middle of Local Governance.” Proceedings from an AREU Roundtable Discussion. 27 June 2011 (July 2011). Kabul: AREU.
Barfield, T.J. 2010. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9781400834532
Beath, A., F. Christia, and R. Enikolopov. 2012. “Winning Hearts and Minds through Development? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan. Policy Research Working Paper. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
BMZ. 2010. “Bundesentwicklungsminister Dirk Niebel: Entwicklungsoffensive in Afghanistan,” in Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung. 5 May 2010. http://www.bmz.de/de/presse/aktuelleMeldungen/2010/mai/20100505_afghanistan/.
Böhnke, J., J. Koehler, and C. Zürcher. 2014. “Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation in North East Afghanistan 2005-2009: A Repeated Mixed-Method Survey,” pp. 105–129 in B. Bull, M. Kennedy-Chouane, and O. Winkler-Andersen, eds. Evaluations in Situations of Conflict and Fragility. London: Routledge.
Böhnke, J., J. Koehler, and C. Zürcher. 2013. “Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation in North East Afghanistan: Approaches and Methods.” SFB Working Papers 43. Berlin: Sonderforschungsbereich 700 “Governance in Räumen begrenzter Staatlichkeit.”
Böhnke, J., J. Koehler, and C. Zürcher. 2010. “Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation in North East Afghanistan 2005-2009.” Bonn, Germany: Bundesministerium für Entwicklung und Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit. http://www.oecd.org/countries/afghanistan/46785983.pdf.
Elias, N. 1983. “Über den Rückzug der Soziologen auf die Gegenwart.” Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie. Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 29–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-83504-8_104
Elwert, G. 2002. “Conflict: Anthropological Aspects,” pp. 2542-2547 in N.J. Smelser and P.B. Baltes, eds. International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Science. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Giustozzi, A. 2007. Koran, Kalashnikov, and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan. New York: Columbia University Press.
Giustozzi, A. and C. Reuter. 2011. “The Insurgents of the Afghan North.” AAN Thematic Report 04/2011. Afghan Analyst Network. http://aan-afghanistan.com/index.asp?id=1679.
IDLG/MRRD. 2013. “Policy for Improving Governance and Development in Districts and Villages. Kabul: Independent Directorate of Local Governance, Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. 2010. “Sub-national Governance Policy.” Kabul: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. http://jawzjan.gov.af/Content/Media/Documents/SNGP-English-Afghanistan307201192625245553325325.pdf.
Koehler, J., K. Gosztonyi, and J. Böhnke. 2011. “Conflict and Stability in Afghanistan. Methodological Approaches.” Violence, Drugs and Governance: Mexican Security in Comparative Perspective. Stanford University, 4 October 2011. http://cddrl.stanford.edu/events/6716.
Koehler, J. and K. Gosztonyi. 2011. “Sub-District Governance. Social Engineering and Local Governance in North-East Afghanistan,” pp. 39-64 in Ml Schaper, ed. Good Enough Governance. Wie kommt der Südsudan zu tragfähiger Staatlichkeit und funktionierender Verwaltung? Loccum, Germany: Format Publishing.
Koehler, J. 2012. “Social Order Within and Beyond the Shadow of Hierarchy. Governance Patterns in Afghanistan.” SFB-Governance Working Papers Series 33. Berlin, Research Centre (SFB) 700.
LaFranchi, H. 2011. “In Afghanistan War, US Civilian Surge Peaks as Pentagon Begins Pullback.” The Christian Science Monitor. 23 June 2011. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2011/0623/In-Afghanistan-war-US-civilian-surge-peaks-as-Pentagon-begins-pullback.
McChrystal, S. 2009a. “Commander’s Initial Assessment (unclassified with removal of enclosure).” Kabul: Headquarters International Security Assistance Force.
McChrystal, S. 2009b. “Tactical Directive: Unclassified.” Kabul: NATO, ISAF Headquarters.
NATO. 2013. “Inteqal: Transition to Afghan Lead.” http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_87183.htm.
Nojumi, N. 2008. “The Rise and Fall of the Taliban,” pp. 90-117 in R.D. Crews and A. Tarzi, eds. The Taliban and the Crisis of Afghanistan. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Rubin, B.R. 2002. The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Suhrke, A. 2012. When More Is Less: The International Project in Afghanistan. New York: Columbia University Press.
UNDP. 2013. Human Development Report 2013. (Explanatory note on 2013 HDR composite indices. Afghanistan.) http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/AFG.pdf.
Woodward, B. 2011. Obama’s Wars. New York: Simon & Schuster.
